Tomorrow marks another turning point in the 2016 elections as the Democratic and Republican nominations shift to Nevada and South Carolina, respectively. I don’t think I’ll shock anyone by saying the Clinton-Sanders rivalry in the Midwest will be a late night affair (the polls have almost universally had the contest within the margin of error), but I will go out on another limb and suggest that Cruz will seriously outperform in South Carolina, as he did in Iowa.

I’ll admit, this opinion sounds like more of a stretch than Iowa, as Trump has held a commanding double digit lead in the state in most of the recent polls. If you had asked me a week ago, I would have predicted a 5-7 point Trump victory even after adjusting numbers for Cruz’s immense ground game. Last Friday, however, Donald Trump hadn’t picked a fight with Pope Francis. Keep in mind that the source of Cruz’s Iowa upset was religious voters, particularly evangelicals. These voters are even more abundant in South Carolina, and attacking a religious leader who enjoys a 60 percent approval rating with the group will probably only make them more motivated to show up tomorrow night. Whether most of them break for Cruz or some lower polling candidate will probably determine the winner of a race that I expect will go down to the wire.

Now for the implications of Nevada for the Democratic nomination: The main assumption of Hillary Clinton and her backers was that Bernie Sanders would only be a problem in New Hampshire, where he was dubbed the “native son” after which he would fade and Clinton could continue her rightful coronation. In Iowa and beyond, however, team Clinton has been faced with a rival who simply won’t go away! Sanders has dominated media coverage, filled stadiums, and, most gallingly, shattered the narrative that Hillary Clinton is the inevitable nominee. A Nevada win for Sanders would start a political earthquake, or to quote the man himself in his New Hampshire victory speech, it would be “yuge!”