A map from the Washington Post tracks the per capita number of refugees sent to each state, rating the number sent to each in percentiles.  The top 20% destinations for refugees shows an interesting pattern: 7 of the 11 states voted Republican in 2016.

1st Tier Destinations

  • Idaho (R)
  • Utah (R)
  • Arizona (R)
  • North Dakota (R)
  • South Dakota (R)
  • Nebraska (R)
  • Kentucky (R)
  • Washington (D)
  • Michigan (D)
  • Vermont (D)

The pattern doesn’t stop there, either.  It goes on to the second tier where 5 of the 7 states were either Republican or battleground states 4 years ago:

2nd Tier Destinations

  • Texas (R)
  • Georgia (R)
  • North Carolina (R)
  • Ohio (Swing)
  • Colorado (Swing)
  • New Hampshire (Swing)
  • Massachusetts (D)
  • Maine (D)

The heavy concentration of refugees going to GOP and swing states, added with the Obama administration’s keen interest in making sure skeptical governors keep taking them, begs the question: what effect could refugees have on Presidential politics?  For 2016, probably not much of one:  Entering the country as a refugee doesn’t automatically confer citizenship or the right to vote, a process that usually takes years, if at all.  Long term, though, refugee resettlement could accelerate demographic shifts and spell trouble for GOP majorities in these states.