Team “Maro”? Um….
Hope holding people accountable begins at the campaign level. Yikes!
Marco Rubio Rocks Exeter, NH Event
Marco Rubio shines in a New Hampshire town hall
Is Donald Trump A Conservative?
Recently several Conservative thinkers, Thomas Sowell and Glenn Beck among them, released written statements in the National Review titled “Conservatives Against Trump.” What does that really mean and does Donald Trump really pose a threat to Conservative principles everywhere?
Iowa Prediction – Cruz, Sanders Ground Games Will Triumph
After months of waiting, it’s finally decision time in Des Moines, Iowa. The final week of polling has generally shown small, but consistent leads for candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. These leads have led many to speculate that the race for the state is essentially over, and these two will emerge scarred but victorious.
This leads me to my big prediction for the night: The caucus winners will be Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.
This prediction might sound contradictory to some: Sanders is a candidate whose victory model relies heavily on getting out first time caucus goers to support him. Cruz, on the other hand, is hoping for a large turnout of caucus veterans, among whom polls show him leading Trump by 3 points. How, then, can they both win? Wouldn’t the success of one doom the other?
Not necessarily. Consider first how the caucus process works: the Democratic and Republican caucuses are held in separate locations, and as such have separate attendees. Thus, the effort to turn out first time goers is being made by two separate campaigns to two separate audiences. Sanders is attempting to appeal to first timers on college campuses, while Trump is making his pitch mostly to disaffected blue-collar workers.
Which campaign is more likely to succeed? I think the question will likely come down to ground game: While Trump has certainly made a valiant effort to increase his footprint in the Hawkeye State, Sanders, by nature of his appeal to millennials, has a ready-made army of volunteer students willing to knock on doors, hand out flyers, and make sure people attend what are likely to be long, boring caucuses in a state under a blizzard watch.
What campaign does Sanders have this in common with? Surprisingly, the answer to this is Ted Cruz. Cruz has redefined the concept of ground game, boasting chairs for his campaign in every county for not just Iowa, but also New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. This is a level of “boots on the ground” commitment I haven’t seen in the last three presidential elections, and I think it will pay off tonight.
So how will the actual numbers break down? Here’s my prediction:
Democrats
Sanders 51
Clinton 49
Republicans
Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 20
Carson 11
Paul 5
Bush 4
Other 3
Understanding the Iowa and Colorado caucus procedures
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo., January 31, 2016 – The Iowa caucuses are almost here. To most Americans, the caucus system is something of an enigma wrapped in a riddle. A dozen states use caucuses instead of primaries to select delegates to the party’s national convention. The caucus is an older way to select candidates. It was the… (more…)
John Kerry: ‘Some’ Iran nuke deal money will end up in the hands of terrorists
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Thursday admitted that some of the $55 billion in sanctions relief that will be released to Iran under the nuclear deal will ultimately end up in the hands of terrorists. “I think that some will end up in the hands of the IRGC or of other entities, some of… (more…)
Whom Do You Side With? Take the Quiz!
The primaries are coming fast, and I Side With just came out with a great survey to help you find what candidates support issues that are most important to you. Click here to take the quiz!
Democrats Don’t Know Difference Between Democrats and Socialists
Probably because there isn’t much difference between the two. But if Democrats and various left-wing groups plan to maintain that there is one, it would probably help if they were better able to articulate themselves on this matter.
Refugees Increasingly Sent to GOP, Swing States
A map from the Washington Post tracks the per capita number of refugees sent to each state, rating the number sent to each in percentiles. The top 20% destinations for refugees shows an interesting pattern: 7 of the 11 states voted Republican in 2016.
1st Tier Destinations
- Idaho (R)
- Utah (R)
- Arizona (R)
- North Dakota (R)
- South Dakota (R)
- Nebraska (R)
- Kentucky (R)
- Washington (D)
- Michigan (D)
- Vermont (D)
The pattern doesn’t stop there, either. It goes on to the second tier where 5 of the 7 states were either Republican or battleground states 4 years ago:
2nd Tier Destinations
- Texas (R)
- Georgia (R)
- North Carolina (R)
- Ohio (Swing)
- Colorado (Swing)
- New Hampshire (Swing)
- Massachusetts (D)
- Maine (D)
The heavy concentration of refugees going to GOP and swing states, added with the Obama administration’s keen interest in making sure skeptical governors keep taking them, begs the question: what effect could refugees have on Presidential politics? For 2016, probably not much of one: Entering the country as a refugee doesn’t automatically confer citizenship or the right to vote, a process that usually takes years, if at all. Long term, though, refugee resettlement could accelerate demographic shifts and spell trouble for GOP majorities in these states.