President Trump, while not being the first, pushed the idea of moving the US embassy from it’s current home in Tel Aviv, to Jerusalem, Israel’s actual capital. What will this mean for Israel and the dead-in-the-water peace process?

Jerusalem is a 3000 year old city built by King David. Besieged by different forces, and controlled by every major empire at one point or another, it has been the capital of not only Judea, or Israel, but of the Jewish people. It would make sense then, for countries to have their embassies located there, instead of Tel Aviv. But tis not so simple.

Let’s get some historical context.

It is imperative to understand that the United States was the first country to recognize Israel’s existence in 1948, with diplomatic relations established the following year. But despite this recognition the United States government did not aid Israel during the War for Independence and it wouldn’t do so in large terms until LBJ (even Democrats have their moments).  As part of the Partition Plan there was to be a Jewish state and an Arab state, but the Arabs did not accept the plan and the Jews had no other choice really but to comply.

Jerusalem was originally intended, as per the Partition Plan, to be a neural zone under the flagship of the UN. The War for Independence destroyed that, practically literally with Jordan’s Occupation of Jerusalem. And yes, occupation. Jordan had no rights to Jerusalem but occupied it until June of 1967. It became a subject of dispute after that because Jordan, seeing themselves as the advocates for the Palestinians wanted Jerusalem back. The PLO emerged in 1964 and would eventually become the de facto representative of the Palestinian people, who demand Jerusalem as their capital shortly after Jordan abandoned the idea of ever getting that territory or their proxy to the Palestinians back.

While under Jordan occupation it wasn’t possible for embassies to be in Jerusalem because of this reason.

Jerusalem has never been the capital of any nation or empire, except for the ancient Jewish kingdom and the modern Jewish nation and the Jewish people. For decades the Palestinians have demanded Jerusalem as their capital and due to various reasons, have been given some autonomy in the part of Jerusalem beyond the Wailing Wall. There was a huge mistake.

The United States has been iffy on Jerusalem being Israel’s capital for a variety of reasons, Palestinians/Arab appeasement being one.  But in 1995 the Senate and House adopted resolution S1322, the Jerusalem Embassy Relocation Act ” The Act states that Jerusalem should remain a united city, should be recognized as the capital of the State of Israel and that the U.S. Embassy should be moved there from Tel Aviv no later than May 31, 1999.” But things are never so simple, are they? Perhaps more recent legislation will counter this and we can get it moving. So what’s the hold up gov?

The hold up is that the United States wants to keep some form of relations with the PA, viewing it as a milder form of Palestinian opposition to Israel and officially the US does not recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Presidents apparently keep delaying the 1995 act, if it hasn’t been just vetoed all together.

Okay, so now that we know what’s going on, can we move the Embassy? Anything is possible. The main question is what would be the consequences of such an action? Moving the Embassy legitimizes Israel’s right to Jerusalem and delegitimizes (and rightfully so) the Palestinian claim to the city. It would also, according to the opposition and Hamas, lead to violent backlash either against Israel, or the US or both. The fact of the matter is that the violence will probably be about the same as Israelis know it: stabbings, rock throwing,  and of course rockets. The backlash would of course come. It is inevitable as the next Gaza war. Critics also believe this will mean the end or a hold on the peace process.

The peace process is dead anyway because of a repeating cycle of preconditions, unrealistic demands, and incitement of violence by the PA. This move will lead to tensions, serious ones and probably violent ones, much like what was seen in 2015/16 in Israel. But it will not end the already dead peace process. However, it is possible that some good can come from this move. It would drop the Palestinian down a peg and, in theory, make them reassess their grievances and attitude. This may be wishful thinking.

Whatever the reason, the decision may be necessary to make a significant change within the realm of the conflict, because as International Relations theorists might say, the conflict is at a stalemate and even though the move of the Embassy would benefit Israel, it would certainly change the status quo of the area.