After months of waiting, it’s finally decision time in Des Moines, Iowa.  The final week of polling has generally shown small, but consistent leads for candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  These leads have led many to speculate that the race for the state is essentially over, and these two will emerge scarred but victorious.

This leads me to my big prediction for the night: The caucus winners will be Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.

This prediction might sound contradictory to some: Sanders is a candidate whose victory model relies heavily on getting out first time caucus goers to support him.  Cruz, on the other hand, is hoping for a large turnout of caucus veterans, among whom polls show him leading Trump by 3 points.  How, then, can they both win?  Wouldn’t the success of one doom the other?

Not necessarily.  Consider first how the caucus process works: the Democratic and Republican caucuses are held in separate locations, and as such have separate attendees.  Thus, the effort to turn out first time goers is being made by two separate campaigns to two separate audiences.  Sanders is attempting to appeal to first timers on college campuses, while Trump is making his pitch mostly to disaffected blue-collar workers.

Which campaign is more likely to succeed?  I think the question will likely come down to ground game:  While Trump has certainly made a valiant effort to increase his footprint in the Hawkeye State, Sanders, by nature of his appeal to millennials, has a ready-made army of volunteer students willing to knock on doors, hand out flyers, and make sure people attend what are likely to be long, boring caucuses in a state under a blizzard watch.

What campaign does Sanders have this in common with?  Surprisingly, the answer to this is Ted Cruz.  Cruz has redefined the concept of ground game, boasting chairs for his campaign in every county for not just Iowa, but also New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.  This is a level of “boots on the ground” commitment I haven’t seen in the last three presidential elections, and I think it will pay off tonight.

So how will the actual numbers break down?  Here’s my prediction:

Democrats

Sanders 51
Clinton 49

Republicans

Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 20
Carson 11
Paul 5
Bush 4
Other 3