Prediction: South Carolina, Nevada will Come Down to the Wire
Tomorrow marks another turning point in the 2016 elections as the Democratic and Republican nominations shift to Nevada and South Carolina, respectively. I don’t think I’ll shock anyone by saying the Clinton-Sanders rivalry in the Midwest will be a late night affair (the polls have almost universally had the contest within the margin of error), but I will go out on another limb and suggest that Cruz will seriously outperform in South Carolina, as he did in Iowa.
I’ll admit, this opinion sounds like more of a stretch than Iowa, as Trump has held a commanding double digit lead in the state in most of the recent polls. If you had asked me a week ago, I would have predicted a 5-7 point Trump victory even after adjusting numbers for Cruz’s immense ground game. Last Friday, however, Donald Trump hadn’t picked a fight with Pope Francis. Keep in mind that the source of Cruz’s Iowa upset was religious voters, particularly evangelicals. These voters are even more abundant in South Carolina, and attacking a religious leader who enjoys a 60 percent approval rating with the group will probably only make them more motivated to show up tomorrow night. Whether most of them break for Cruz or some lower polling candidate will probably determine the winner of a race that I expect will go down to the wire.
Now for the implications of Nevada for the Democratic nomination: The main assumption of Hillary Clinton and her backers was that Bernie Sanders would only be a problem in New Hampshire, where he was dubbed the “native son” after which he would fade and Clinton could continue her rightful coronation. In Iowa and beyond, however, team Clinton has been faced with a rival who simply won’t go away! Sanders has dominated media coverage, filled stadiums, and, most gallingly, shattered the narrative that Hillary Clinton is the inevitable nominee. A Nevada win for Sanders would start a political earthquake, or to quote the man himself in his New Hampshire victory speech, it would be “yuge!”
CBS Debate Predictions
It’s very simple, the latest Republican Debate is three hours away. Here are my predictions for what we can expect tonight from our great and not so great candidates. CBS 2100 EST.
Marco Rubio Gaining Major Endorsements in South Carolina
Mayor of Myrtle Beach is the next to endorse Marco Rubio for President and his supporters are not sitting in silence.
Trump’s Predictions on Oprah’s Show 1988
Trump’s Predictions in 1988 while on Oprah: How accurate were they?
Team “Maro”? Um….
Hope holding people accountable begins at the campaign level. Yikes!
Marco Rubio Rocks Exeter, NH Event
Marco Rubio shines in a New Hampshire town hall
Is Donald Trump A Conservative?
Recently several Conservative thinkers, Thomas Sowell and Glenn Beck among them, released written statements in the National Review titled “Conservatives Against Trump.” What does that really mean and does Donald Trump really pose a threat to Conservative principles everywhere?
Iowa Prediction – Cruz, Sanders Ground Games Will Triumph
After months of waiting, it’s finally decision time in Des Moines, Iowa. The final week of polling has generally shown small, but consistent leads for candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. These leads have led many to speculate that the race for the state is essentially over, and these two will emerge scarred but victorious.
This leads me to my big prediction for the night: The caucus winners will be Senators Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.
This prediction might sound contradictory to some: Sanders is a candidate whose victory model relies heavily on getting out first time caucus goers to support him. Cruz, on the other hand, is hoping for a large turnout of caucus veterans, among whom polls show him leading Trump by 3 points. How, then, can they both win? Wouldn’t the success of one doom the other?
Not necessarily. Consider first how the caucus process works: the Democratic and Republican caucuses are held in separate locations, and as such have separate attendees. Thus, the effort to turn out first time goers is being made by two separate campaigns to two separate audiences. Sanders is attempting to appeal to first timers on college campuses, while Trump is making his pitch mostly to disaffected blue-collar workers.
Which campaign is more likely to succeed? I think the question will likely come down to ground game: While Trump has certainly made a valiant effort to increase his footprint in the Hawkeye State, Sanders, by nature of his appeal to millennials, has a ready-made army of volunteer students willing to knock on doors, hand out flyers, and make sure people attend what are likely to be long, boring caucuses in a state under a blizzard watch.
What campaign does Sanders have this in common with? Surprisingly, the answer to this is Ted Cruz. Cruz has redefined the concept of ground game, boasting chairs for his campaign in every county for not just Iowa, but also New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. This is a level of “boots on the ground” commitment I haven’t seen in the last three presidential elections, and I think it will pay off tonight.
So how will the actual numbers break down? Here’s my prediction:
Democrats
Sanders 51
Clinton 49
Republicans
Cruz 29
Trump 28
Rubio 20
Carson 11
Paul 5
Bush 4
Other 3